Climate will warm by 3 degrees without urgent action – report
A report from the United Nations (UN) has warned that the world’s climate is on a trajectory to warm by 3°C this century.
The latest analysis from the UN indicates that the current emissions commitments made by countries to slow climate change would still result in a global temperature increase of nearly 3 degrees Celsius (3°C) by the end of this century.
Released on Monday, the annual Emissions Gap report evaluates nations’ efforts to address climate change in comparison to what is necessary. The report warns that without increased climate action, the world could experience warming between 2.5°C and 2.9°C above preindustrial levels.
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At a 3°C increase, scientists anticipate the possibility of surpassing critical thresholds, including the extensive melting of ice sheets and the drying out of the Amazon rainforest.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed concern, stating, “Present trends are racing our planet down a dead-end 3°C temperature rise,” describing the emissions gap as more of a “canyon.”
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CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE 2023
Global leaders are set to gather in Dubai for the annual UN climate summit COP28 from 30 November 2023 – 12 December 2023, with the goal of maintaining the Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
However, the new UN report casts doubt on the achievability of this goal, emphasising that greenhouse gas emissions must decrease by 42% by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5°C.
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Even in the most optimistic scenario, the chance of achieving this target is only 14%, adding to a growing body of scientific evidence suggesting the goal may be unattainable.
The report reveals that global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 1.2% from 2021 to 2022, reaching a record 57.4 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
It evaluates countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are required to be updated every five years, to determine how much the world might warm if these plans were fully implemented.
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SOME PROGRESS SINCE PARIS AGREEMENT
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The report compares unconditional pledges, leading to a 2.9°C temperature rise, with conditional pledges that would limit warming to 2.5°C.
“That is basically unchanged compared with last year’s report,” said Anne Olhoff, chief scientific editor of the report.
While the anticipated level of warming is slightly higher than 2022 projections, the analysis acknowledges progress since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015.