Concerning outlook for South Africa’s white population in 2025
The latest figures reveal that South Africa’s white population continues to shrink, and emigration isn’t the only reason driving the decline. Here’s what else is contributing…
Stats SA’s latest mid-year population estimate for 2025 reveals that South Africa’s white population remains the only demographic group that continues to decline.
While the reasons for this trend will be unpacked shortly, the report also highlights key national statistics, including that the country’s population has surpassed 63 million, marking a rise of 772,291 people (1.23%) in just one year.
SOUTH AFRICA’S WHITE POPULATION DECLINING
As The South African reported last week, these are the most popular countries South Africa’s white population are moving to. And according to the new report, an additional 10 500 white residents will choose to leave the country for good this year, too, reports BusinessTech.
As a result, the number of white South Africans emigrating rose from 84 308 to 94 898 in 2025, and Stats SA projects that figure will exceed 100 000 by next year. Interestingly, emigration isn’t the only factor driving the decline in South Africa’s white population.
CRUDE DEATH RATE INCREASE
Stats SA’s Crude Death Rate (CDR), which tracks annual deaths per 1,000 people, rose slightly to 8.8 in 2025, marking its first increase this decade after stabilising at 8.7 following the pandemic peak.
The highest CDR on record was 11.1 in 2021 during COVID-19, surpassing even the HIV crisis in 2006. While all other demographic groups in South Africa are experiencing growth, the white population continues to decline.
Whites now make up just 7.1% of the population, down 0.9% from 2024, while the black African population rose by 0.2%, coloured by 0.1%, and Indian/Asian by a notable 1.6%.
NET POSITIVE MIGRATION
Moreover, while white people continue to leave, a migration by black Africans is being led into South Africa. Stats SA estimates 903 697 black Africans will enter the country by 2026. Likewise, the Indian/Asian population is expected to grow by more 56 000 in the coming year, leading to a net positive migration.
Other interesting data from the mid-year population estimate reveals that 51.1% of South Africa’s population is female. Gauteng remains the most populous province with 16-million residents, followed by KwaZulu-Natal with 12.2 million. While the Northern Cape is the least populated province, home to only 1.4-million residents.