Ramaphosa in Brasilia, Bozell in Pretoria: the state of our situationship
While Washington sent a culture warrior to lecture Pretoria, the SA president was in Brazil pitching South Africa as a gateway to Africa. The divorce is getting expensive.
President Cyril Ramaphosa spent Monday, 9 March 2026, in Brasilia with President Lula da Silva, pitching South Africa as Brazil’s “gateway into African markets.” Nice.
Back in Pretoria, America’s new ambassador, a conservative media activist who once belonged to the Coalition Against ANC Terrorism, was settling into his job.
The widening rift
Addressing the 2026 Biznews conference, Ambassador Bozell detailed Washington’s growing dissatisfaction with Pretoria. He specifically cited South Africa’s refusal to align with U.S. demands regarding land reform, B-BBEE policies, and the safety of the white farming community.
Oh and of course he had opinions. “We may not get clarity on the ‘Kill the Boer’ chant that we believe is hate speech. I’m sorry, I don’t care what your court says, it’s hate speech,” Bozell said.
The EFF countered with a blistering statement, labeling these diplomatic pressures as the overreach of a “war-mongering” Trump administration.
The EFF’s Statement Calling on Constitutional Court Chief Justice Mandisa Maya to Condemn Attacks on the Judiciary by US Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III
— Economic Freedom Fighters (@EFFSouthAfrica) March 11, 2026
-In light of the context in which he made his comments, wherein he threatened disinvestment from South Africa should the US’s… pic.twitter.com/7lg6uP9tDG
Despite these tensions, Bozell emphasized the deep-rooted economic ties that remain, pointing to the hundreds of American firms—including tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google—that continue to anchor the bilateral trade relationship.
The sitiuationship with the US tells you everything about where South Africa’s foreign policy is heading. And where it isn’t.
Washington’s empty chair
It has been nearly a year since the Trump administration expelled Ambassador Ebrahim Rasool, declaring him persona non grata after he accused the White House of “mobilising supremacism” during a think-tank webinar.
The replacement envoy, former deputy finance minister Mcebisi Jonas, was denied a diplomatic visa after old social media posts surfaced calling Trump a “racist” and “narcissistic right-winger.”
So… South Africa has no one in Washington. None. The world’s largest economy and Pretoria’s second-biggest export market, and we don’t have a top diplomat there who can pick up the phone.
Meanwhile, Washington sent us Bozell, founder of the Media Research Centre, a conservative watchdog that monitors “leftist bias” in American newsrooms. That alone tells you a lot about the current ecosystem.
Oh, and Bozell’s son was among those convicted for the January 6 Capitol riot. During his Senate confirmation hearing, Bozell promised to pressure South Africa to drop its genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice and to counter Pretoria’s “geostrategic drift” towards Russia, China, and Iran.
Bozell presented his credentials on 23 February. Two weeks later, Ramaphosa was on a plane to Brazil.
The Brasilia pivot
The state visit, March 9 to 10, was as subtle a power play as a sledgehammer. Ramaphosa arrived with seven cabinet ministers and a business delegation spanning mining, defence, energy, pharmaceuticals and aerospace. The message was clear: South Africa is open for business. With someone other than Washington.
Bilateral trade between South Africa and Brazil hit R32.5 billion in 2025. That figure deserves context, though, before anyone starts popping champers as well. South African exports to Brazil totalled R5.2 billion. Imports from Brazil totalled R27.3 billion. That is a R22 billion trade deficit. South Africa is buying from Brazil five times more than it is selling. So what gives?
Ramaphosa’s pitch at the Business Forum was to shift that ratio. He positioned South Africa as Brazil’s entry point to the African Continental Free Trade Area, and Brazil as South Africa’s entry point to Latin America. The MERCOSUR-SACU Preferential Trade Agreement, which has been on ice for years, was presented as the vehicle.
It all sounds promising on paper, mind you. But then, South Africa has been positioning itself as the “gateway to Africa” forever. AND the gateway keeps widening. And for such a big whoop gateway, little traffic seems to flow our way.
The AGOA question
But what does all this mean? And for your wallet? The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which gives South African goods preferential access to American markets, was extended through December 2026 after a four-month lapse. The US Congress passed it with bipartisan support, 340 to 54. But, and it’s not great, the extension is for one year only.
Plus, it comes with a catch. The Trump administration slapped a 30% “reciprocal” tariff on South African imports in 2025. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told a Senate committee he’d be happy to consider cutting South Africa out of AGOA entirely, calling the country “a unique problem.”
Senator John Kennedy, who insists that “South Africa is not America’s friend,” introduced a competing bill that would mandate a review of US-SA relations and potentially exclude South Africa from AGOA altogether, citing military cooperation with Iran and Russia, the ICJ case against Israel and what Washington calls “anti-white policies.”
South Africa’s top AGOA export category is passenger vehicles and parts, accounting for 64% of its eligible products. Those are real jobs in Gauteng and the Eastern Cape. Those jobs don’t have a BRICS alternative yet.
Some diplomatic math
The numbers tell a story that neither Pretoria’s breezy optimism nor Washington’s hostility quite captures.
China is South Africa’s largest export market. The US is second. Brazil is not close to replacing either. The R32.5 billion in SA-Brazil trade is a fraction of the R14.7 billion in goods South Africa exported to the US in 2024 alone.
Ramaphosa invited Brazilian business leaders to the South Africa Investment Conference on 31 March. He talked about biofuels, defence cooperation, advanced manufacturing, the New Development Bank. The language was forward-looking and even optimistic. It was doing what state visits are for.
But the thorny truth is that South Africa’s pivot to BRICS partners has so far been a story about political solidarity, not economic transformation. Brazil dispenses solidarity. Washington provides market access. Those are different currencies, and goodwill doesn’t buy much at Checkers.
What’s next?
The real test arrives in December, when AGOA’s one-year extension expires. If Congress decides South Africa is expendable, the automotive sector alone faces tariffs of roughly 33% under most-favoured-nation rates. Citrus, wine, macadamia nuts, all products that took decades to build market share in America, would become uncompetitive overnight.
Ramaphosa’s Brasilia visit was smart diplomacy. It signals that South Africa will not be bullied into abandoning its foreign policy positions, its ICJ case or its BRICS commitments. That is worth something.
But it is not worth R14.7 billion in annual exports. Not yet. And every month South Africa goes without an ambassador in Washington is another month nobody is making that argument where it needs to be heard.